This photo shows the current potential storm surge flooding map for south Pinellas, barrier islands and Tampa. The Tampa Bay area risks “dangerous storm surge and heavy rainfall,” regardless of the storm’s projected landfall, according to Ali Davis, a meteorologist with the NWS office in Tampa Bay. Forecasters predict Idalia will arrive sometime that same day. The peak-high king tide is expected to arrive in St. The National Hurricane Center is now predicting more than 4 feet of surge. In East Bay, that difference is about 3 feet, 6 inches. On its current track, Idalia’s storm surge is poised to break this record, experts say.įor instance: The difference between high and low tide in St. Petersburg was set during Hurricane Elena in 1985 - 4 feet above high tide. “But if it comes in at a high tide, 4-foot surge now is going to be record-setting.” ”If peak surge happens to come in at low tide, and you get a 4-foot surge, maybe it’s only going to be a foot above normal,” Masters said. If the timing of peak surge overlaps with the king tide, storm surge levels could reach a record high. The hour that Idalia delivers its peak storm surge to the Tampa Bay area could signal just how severe flooding will be, according to Jeff Masters, a hurricane scientist formerly with NOAA. “Sea levels have risen nearly a foot since the beginning of the 1900’s, which raises the baseline from which these floods occur – pushing nuisance floods from storms into record territories that used to only come in the strongest storms such as hurricanes.Tides are just one factor in storm surge, but researchers say this especially high tide could mean the Tampa Bay area will see increased flooding brought by Idalia.
“Long-term sea level rise from rising global and ocean temperatures resulting from climate change makes coastal flooding events like this happen more frequently, with worsening impacts from higher floods,” says Brandon Miller, CNN meteorologist and climate crisis beat leader. It is important to note that for the Chesapeake Bay at Cambridge location, four of the five highest crests on record have occurred since September of 2003.Ĭhesapeake Bay at Windmill Point has registered 8 out of its 10 highest crests on record since September 2006. Those along tidal shores should get ready for exceptional tidal inundation! Tidal forecasts here: /LQkL80pzQs- NWS Baltimore-Washington October 28, 2021 One of the biggest tidal flood events of the past 10-20 years (possibly since Hurricane Isabel at some locales), is expected Friday & Saturday. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.” “Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines,” the warning says.
High wind warnings and wind advisories are also in effect for several counties as wind gusts are expected to reach as high as 60 mph. That combination is driving the easterly flow right off the Atlantic Ocean and piling all that Atlantic ocean water on the shoreline and up the Chesapeake Bay.” “This is just low pressure moving in, but that strong low pressure is working against high pressure over New England to our north. “Usually, when we have tidal events this extreme, it’s usually from hurricanes or tropical events,” Strong said.
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